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To ensure consistency, the results of a cargo tonnage forecast should be organized on the same planning levels as the passenger forecast. An ATM is defined as either an aircraft arrival or departure. Generally, in both the passenger and cargo markets, an increase in aircraft gauge size is observed over time. The deployment of larger airliners and freighters is a driver for industry cost savings.
Therefore, it is often observed that ATMs increase at a slower pace than passenger and cargo volumes. In order to provide an ATM forecast that readily facilitates the evaluation of existing and future airport facility requirements, it is recommended that the ATM forecast be developed by key operational category:. Care should be taken to exclude these traffic components as necessary when evaluating existing or future airfield requirements.
Passenger ATM forecasts are typically derived from the passenger forecast. Indeed, the aggregate number of commercial passenger movements at an airport depends on three factors:. This equation permits infinite multitude of combinations of load factors and average aircraft size to accommodate a given number of passengers. In the absence of load factor and average aircraft size information, the forecast analyst can use passenger per movement assumptions to derive an ATM forecast from the passenger volume forecast.
This is essentially a one-step approach that combines the load factor and aircraft size assumptions in one metric. The basic approach to deriving the passenger movements forecast is essentially the same at all airports. The underlying assumptions at each airport, however, are inherently different due to the differences in how airlines choose to serve the demand for air travel to, from, and over each airport.
These differences may result, for example, from:. Further segmentation of the passenger ATM forecasts is recommended in order to provide a more refined ATM forecast and associated fleet mix. The segments to be analyzed will need to be determined by the forecast analyst on a case-by-case basis. The following segments provide an example of the potential ATM segments an analyst may consider as part of developing a passenger ATM forecast.
In most aviation markets the domestic segment tends to be made up of a higher percentage of narrow-body and regional aircraft while the international segment tends to have a higher concentration of wide-body aircraft.
A relatively straightforward division of ATMs into domestic and international segments will allow an analyst to take into account growth expectations at the segment level and develop the associated average aircraft size and load factor assumptions. This is an extension of the domestic and international segmentation. The distance of down-line markets from the subject airport are one of the determining factors in the type of aircraft deployed.
By segmenting ATMs by length of haul or by geographic region, the results may show greater consistency in the fleet mix that may otherwise be masked by a less disaggregated approach. For example, in the United States, there has been a significant reduction in domestic short-haul flights less than miles. These markets have typically been served by small regional jets seats and turboprop aircraft. By allocating less activity to the short-haul segment, the forecast can naturally de-emphasize these aircraft types and drive a higher overall average aircraft size.
There are always interesting exceptions to many broad rules. For example, the Sydney- Melbourne market is less than miles apart, however, the significant passenger demand in the market results in high-frequency wide-body aircraft being deployed on the route. Network carri ers tend to have more diverse fleet mixes than new model airlines NMAs which historically have operated relatively homogenous narrow-body jet fleets.
The growth in NMA activity has been a critical driver of activity at airports around the globe, particularly in the last decade. From a forecasting perspective, segmentation by airline business model allows for more targeted assumptions to be made based on the segment of activity that is expected to drive growth in the future. From a facility planning perspective, NMAs may need more basic terminal facilities and fewer terminal amenities than their network counterparts. NMAs may also make higher utilization of their stands than network carriers which may have slower aircraft turn times.
NMAs may also time flights to meet banks at down-line hubs. Once the key passenger ATM segments have been identified, there are a number of micro and macro sources that can assist in the development of average seats per flight assumptions at a given airport. A summary of some useful resources and how they can be used as inputs to the passenger ATM forecast follow. OAG and SRS Analyzer provide historical and month forward-looking airline flight schedules by airline, market, aircraft type, and seat configuration for all scheduled commercial passenger airlines at the airport level.
These are excellent sources for understanding historical air service and fleet mix trends at an airport. Additionally, they provide a strong indication of airline growth plans six to 12 months into the future, depending on the filing status of the airline. The data does not include non scheduled passenger activity and reflects what airlines scheduled to occur at a given airport rather than what actually occurred.
As a result, cancellations and other factors that may result in deviations from a flig ht's given schedule are not reflected. The operator of the subject airport or the Air Navigation Service Provider will most likely be able to provide landing reports by carrier and by aircraft type in order to develop historical average aircraft size and fleet mix data.
Data provided by the airport operator may also include non scheduled passenger activity that would not be reported in the airline schedule filings. Changes in fleet mix or aircraft allocation are the primary drivers in the number of passengers per ATM. As part of the forecasting process, key airlines need to be interviewed to obtain guidance on their future fleet and network strategy. Many aircraft ord ers are also publically available on airline, manufacturer, and other third party websites.
Boeing and Airbus each publish annual outlooks that provide twenty-year forecasts of new aircraft deliveri es by worl d region and by aircraft group e. While a given airport may serve a different mix of aircraft than the global average, or even the region as a whole, the manufacturer outlooks provide a useful context to compare and contrast a more micro level airport forecast.
There are a number of companies that maintain aircraft inventory databases including aircraft orders and retirements. These can be expensive, so the cost must be balanced against the needs of the project. Understanding historical and potential future air service and aircraft trends at an airport is critical to developing defensible measures of average seats per passenger flight as inputs to the passenger ATM forecast.
The second step in developing the passenger ATM forecast is to develop load factor assumptions for each of the passenger ATM segments. Load factors in the past five or six years have generally trended upwards as airlines have made better use of their aircraft assets. According to data published by lATA, global load factors averaged around 80 percent for the first three quarters of Load factors do differ by aviation market with loads in the North American market currently the highest in the world at 82 to 83 percent compared with the relatively low loads in the Africa market of 67 to 69 percent6.
The forecast should try to reflect load factor trends for the subject airport and the key markets it serves. The forecast must consider if there is potential for further growth in load factors prior to airlines either adding frequency or increasing average aircraft size.
Once the average aircraft size and load factor assumptions have been developed, the passenger ATM forecast can be derived based on the formula shown in Chapter 2. For purposes of physical planning at an airport, the passenger ATM forecast can be further disaggregated into fleet mix categories.
A typical requirement is to develop the ATM forecast by aircraft groups. More detailed planning forecast exercises, environmental forecasts, or forecasts that have a simulation component may require ATM forecasts down to the level of aircraft make and model.
A top-down approach should be employed to allocate the results of the movements forecast to the defined fleet mix categories. The fleet mix should be developed to match the aggregate average aircraft size and load factor targets. The process of developing the fleet mix should allow for the calibration of these assumptions and, where appropriate, making iterative modifications prior to finalizing the assumptions and associated results. The freighter ATM forecast is typically derived from the associated freighter tonnage forecast based on tonnage per movement assumptions.
The freighter tonnage per movement implicitly reflects both the size of the aircraft and the associated load factor. Cargo load factors can be estimated based on specific aircraft or the average payload of freighter movements anticipated at a given airport. Cargo load factors can be a useful statistic when determining how much additional cargo the freighter aircraft at a given airport can accommodate before adding frequency or increasing average aircraft size.
However, cargo load factors should be used with caution for the following reasons:. For example, a freighter aircraft full of flowers will result in a significantly different tonnage per flight metric than a freighter full of steel ball bearings.
Consequently, weight-based load factors can be misleading. For example, a 65 percent cargo load factor on a route between Shanghai and the United States may represent full freighter flights from Shanghai to the United States, but half empty flights on the way back. This type of routing results in a relatively low tonnage per flight metric at the subject airport and may lead the forecast analyst to defer adding frequencies if the multi-segment routing is not understood. Once the tonnage per freighter movement assumptions have been developed, they can be applied to the all- cargo tonnage forecast to derive all-cargo ATMs.
A top-down approach can be used to determine a more detailed aircraft fleet mix. Subjective judgment often goes into making general aviation GA forecasts due to reliance on national trends, forecasts and, to the extent such are available, local historical records. GA activity includes diverse uses that can range from:. Understanding the history and current state of the GA industry can help predict future aviation demand.
The following sub-chapters discuss how to develop a general aviation forecast while considering nationwide historical, emerging, and forecast trends. When developing movement forecasts, it is essential to consider historical, national, and emerging trends in the general aviation market. Similar to the aviation activity from the passenger and cargo segments, GA is influenced by the overall health of the economy.
The forecaster should consider the influence of local business, tourism, and other economic activity on general aviation activity as well as the influence of various socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Changes in fuel prices impact the economic relationships between modes of transportation and the price differentials between different segments of the aviation market.
Although fuel prices are a major problem for the commercial airlines, corporate GA users are less sensitive to changes in fuel prices. Given the cost to own and operate a corporate aircraft or to charter a business jet, the incremental cost of fuel is typically a secondary consideration.
The concept of fractional ownership in general aviation aircraft has significantly contributed to the revitalization of the GA manufacturing industry in the 21st century.
This concept of purchasing hours of jet time has encouraged more general aviation activity, allowing more people to have access to GA aircraft. Historical GA activity data should be reviewed and organized to identify significant characteristics, the local and itinerant mix, and the fleet mix of airport-based aircraft over the planning period. For all airports, the GA forecast should be further guided by discussions from the fixed-base operators FBOs , flight training academies and other factors at the subject airport that may impact GA activity.
The first step in developing a GA forecast is to organize the historical data in tabular format by distributing the total general aviation movements into aircraft segments i.
This distribution will display historical trends and set-up the groundwork for the GA fleet mix. The next step is to select a forecasting approach that makes the most sense for the airport i.
Once the methodology has been developed, the forecaster should apply the forecast results over a time series. Based on research of historical, national, and emerging GA trends, the next step is to develop the fleet mix based on this analysis. Explanations should be provided if major changes from historic trends are expected in the future.
The projections of GA activity should be prepared for the forecast planning horizons along with projections of the airport-based aircraft fleet mix for the same horizons. To determine the activity level required between these planning horizons, interpolate the data as needed.
It is important to remember that not all airports are the same when developing a general aviation forecast. A key segment that may affect some airports is often called W IP, or "very, very important person" activity.
WIPs are most commonly royalty or political figures. Although VVIP service is not common at most airports, it is significant to keep this type of activity in mind when developing a general aviation forecast. Work with airport management and staff who are in contact with representatives of the military to have a better understanding of the expected future levels of military and government activity.
The total movements forecast should be derived by adding all the ATM forecasts described above. An overall tabular format of total movements should be created displaying each category as well as total movements, including compound annual growth rates. The results from each segment of the movements forecast will be used for the peak period analysis described in detail in the next chapter.
These vari ations result in peak periods when the greatest amount of demand is placed upon facilities required to accommodate passenger and aircraft movements. Peakin g characteristics are critical in the assessment of existing facilities to determine their ability to accommodate forecast increases in passenger and operational activity throughout the study period.
The objective of developing peak period forecasts is to provide a design level that sizes facilities so they are neither underutilized nor overcrowded too often. ATM peak period forecasts will focus on total, arrivals. The following sub chapters provide an overview of the most common ways to measure the current peak traffic. These methods form the basis of forecasting future peaks. They are also presented for reference.
To determine the average week, the monthly passengers or movements are divided by the number of weeks in the peak month or the number days of the month multiplied by seven.
The seven-day period Monday through Sunday that is closest to an average week is selected and the second busiest day of the week during that period is identified.
Finally, the hourly profile for the 2 nd busiest day is then analyzed to determine the peak hour. Federal Aviation Administration guidance suggests using the peak hour of the average day in the peak month for purposes of physical planning; typically referred to as the peak month average day PMAD. It is recommended that three to five years of historical data be analyzed to determine the typical peak month at the subject airport.
The PMAD is the day that most closely represents an average day in the peak month. Alternatively, a weekday average can be used when the airport has significantly lower weekend traffic than during the week. The SBR can be calculated differently based on airport operator requirements, but the generally accepted definition is the 30'h highest hour of annual passenger flow. Other examples include the h busiest hour implemented in Amsterdam and the h busiest hour implemented at French airports including Paris airports.
To determine the SBR, the hourly data must be ranked in order of magnitude. This definition ensures that the projected throughput is lower than the BHR at least 95 percent of the time. As with the SBR, the five percent threshold is a guideline that may be changed by the forecaster. To determine the BHR, the hourly data must be arranged in descending order of magnitude. Starting with the highest volume hour, the forecaster calculates the cumulative sum of the top volumes that amount to five percent of the annual volume.
In order to develop targeted airport facility requirements, it is important to evaluate peak hour activity by directional flow. Departure peaks drive functions such as parking, check-in, and security screening. Arriving peaks drive functional elements such as immigration, baggage claim, and greeter requirements. The total peak may drive overall circulation, concessions, and restroom requirements. It is important to note that these peaks are typically distinct, occurring at different times of the day as a function of airline scheduling practices.
Depending on the airport and scope of the forecast, further disaggregation of peak hour activity may be required:. Forecasts for peak period passengers and aircraft movements can be obtained directly from annual forecasts by applying ratios of busy period traffic to annual traffic. As passenger demand and aircraft movements increase, these ratios are usually slightly declining. An analysis of the recent historic data will confirm the relationship between peak hour demand and annual demand.
The FAA established typical ratios between peak hour passengers and annual passenger traffic. Such ratios can be found in airport planning materials, including FAA publications. These ratios were developed for North American airports in the s and 90s are indicative only. For elaborate forecasts, it may be necessary to develop detailed flight schedules for a design day or busy day. The flight schedules reflect expectations regarding the future growth of ATM segments passenger, cargo, general aviation, and military , the mix of markets, aircraft fleet mix, and the future hourly operational profile of the airport.
The future flight schedule will contain the following attributes:. The future flight schedule will be used to estimate the volumes of passengers throughout the terminal by combining the information on aircraft arrivals and departures with passenger check-in curves. As discussed above, there is no consistent methodology for developing peak period forecasts across all airports.
The methodology used will vary by region, airport, desired level of service, and the availability of data. A consistent theme of all the methodologies is to not plan to the very peak period of a given year, resulting in facilities that are significantly underutilized at other times of year.
Indeed, the forecaster may want to evaluate multiple methodologies and assess the range of results. Sensitivity assessment with some of the inputs or parameters can be made to provide upper and lower limits of demand. The forecaster must also determine the appropriate level of effort for the subject airport. They have the advantage of narrowing peak hour analysis to a particular day or at most across the peak month.
Some airports that function primarily as hubs may experience several very sharp peaks followed by very low activity the rest of the day. In this case, a larger percentage of passengers will experience peak conditions and it may be necessary to use another criterion instead of the peak hour to size the terminal facilities. This criterion may be based on a minimum level of service to be experienced by at least 95 percent of passengers.
Logically, the planning process moves from the more general level of detail through to the more specific where the different elements that comprise the airport are examined together and separately. The update of the ADRM is structured to reflect this progression.
And continues with a comprehensive chapter on planning the Passenger Terminal see Chapter 3. Passenger terminals are certainly one of the most interesting and complex elements at any airport.
This chapter also addresses Levels of Service LoS from both a quantitative and passenger perception point of view. LoS continue to be of interest as airport infra stru cture particularly terminal facilities, continue to be stretched by the overall growth in aviation. All airports should develop a master plan in order to guide future infrastructure and facility development programs in a logical, sustainable and cost efficient manner.
Many airports currently lack a master plan or vision of the future. This chapter sets out the reasoning for establishing a master plan, the need for consultation and the planning process that can lead to the creation of a coherent airport master plan. A master plan is required so that all airside, landside and airport support elements can develop, expand and improve the operational flexibility and efficiency of their business in a structured, balanced and orderly fashion.
This, without adversely impacting on the business of their neighbors on or adjacent to the airport. In so doing, the potential of the available land and the capacity of the airport's runway system and terminal area will be maximized. All airports should have a master plan to guide their future infrastructure development in a logical, cost efficient and affordable manner. Without a master plan, there is a risk that short-term decision making will result in projects for capacity enhancement being poorly located or inappropriately sized, resulting in wasteful expenditures or restrictions on the airport's overall capacity or performance.
In the absence of qualified internal subject matter experts, the master plan should be prepared by independent consultants with global experience and a proven history of delivering plans that enable incremental modular expansion when demand triggers development. Airport traffic tends to grow with the economy. An airport needs to be looking to the future to ensure that, as traffic increases and its composition fleet mix changes, the facilities will be in place to meet the needs of that traffic.
Failure to plan and to develop sufficient facilities e. A master plan is the planners' vision of how the ultimate development potential of the airport could be realized. It is a physical representation of an airport's long-term business plan. It will provide an indication of how capacity enhancement may proceed over the short 0- 5 years and medium 6- 10 years terms.
Finally, a master plan will indicate how those developments could be linked to:. Master plans are developed for new and existing airports. They should be reviewed approximately every five years, or when significant changes in demand occur, so that the airport's future plans reflect the latest market conditions, technological improvements and emerging trends. However, investment in a master plan is important to ensure that the decision- making process is appropriate and the evolution of the plan is adequate to reflect the special circumstances of the airport, its users and the local conditions; and.
Environmental regulations can also influence the content required in a master plan. An effective master plan uses text and drawings to present the material in a way that is understandable by airport decision makers, airport users and others that have an interest in the future of the airport.
A successful master plan should:. The airport master planner must meet the challenge of planning for sufficient capacity and level of service for the forecast aircraft, passenger, cargo and vehicle movements:. The planner constantly needs to be addressing the question, "and then what? It should be noted, however, that refurbishment or expansion of existing facilities may be disruptive to day-to-day airline operations and may increase short-term airline operational expenditures.
If, after consultation, expansion of existing facilities is not practical, then building new on a brownfield site, especially if outside the secure zone, may allow new capacity to be developed more quickly. Regardless of which option is finally pursued, the design of new facilities should be as flexible as is practical.
A building's layout and construction techniques should enable variations in the operational usage of the building and facilitate phased expansion in the future. Airport planners often deal with constraints that may impact or limit the ultimate development potential of the airport. These constraints may include:. Recognizing these constraints early in the planning process will help planners develop realistic assessments of the future potential of an airport. There are a number of misconceptions of what a master plan is and is not.
A master plan is not an airport design. Nor is it a detailed development program or a financing plan. It is a long-term guide to development that supports an airport's business development strategy. It includes indicative investment levels and a preliminary assessment of financing. That said, a master plan needs to be robust and possess the ability to accommodate differing periods of growth and resultant rates of expansion.
Therefore, no master plan should be viewed as the final answer. The changing nature of the airline business and the potential for this to impact on an airport's strategic direction dictates that the master plan should be routinely reviewed, at least every five years. Recommendation: Master Plan Assumptions It is recommended that all master plan assumptions be thoroughly reviewed and tested at least every five years through ongoing consultation with the aviation community. Statistical traffic trends should be reviewed against forecasts on an annual basis to ensure all planning assumptions are still valid.
The airport master plan outlines the vision for airport development to the ultimate development potential of the site. As the airport is an important economic driver, there will be keen interest from those directly and indirectly involved. People in the surrounding communities will want to understand how the airport will develop. Consultation is a key component of a successful master plan. Ideally, when completed, a master plan will be a consensus on the future direction of the airport.
The interested parties in the airport's development are a combination of those with a direct business interest, and a broader group that includes the general public. The term stakeholders is often used to describe this broad group. Consultation with stakeholders should:. Consultations have the most impact if they are commenced early in the planning process, before irreversible decisions are made. With early consultation, the issues of real importance to airport users, political entities and the general public can be identified.
Planners can then manage these issues as the plan develops. Early consultation also highlights common business drivers and interests; this ensures alignment of stakeholder business strategies. Late involvement of users or the public in the master plan process will create the impression that the consultations are not meaningful, because decisions have already been made. This has the potential to delay formal approval if stakeholders cannot support development as envisaged within the master plan.
Consultation, to be meaningful, should be on-going throughout the master plan process. A recommended approach is:. Although there are variations from country to country, the current trend is for more consultation rather than less. In many countries, public consultations are mandatory. Determining who to consult will vary by city, country and region.
Clearly, as the airport's primary function is to support aviation, airlines should be regarded as a primary stakeholder, or even as a "business partner". Consultation with carriers and their representative associations needs to be early, frequent and meaningful. A well-structured program is beneficial to all parties. The airlines have an opportunity to assist the airport in keeping capital costs to an appropriate level.
However, it should be acknowledged that, due to the dynamic nature of the airline business, the airlines' time period of primary focus is often much shorter than the overall period being addressed by the master plan.
Confidentiality is necessary because airlines may not want to discuss some items in front of their competitors; and. Airlines may be hesitant to share data or future plans, either directly to the airport authority or through external consultants, as these could be commercially sensitive.
Airport authorities will need to ensure that the data disclosed is protected via a non disclosure agreement or other means to protect individual airline interests. Consultation with the ANSP is essential, especially when the master plan may include proposed infrastructure changes that have the potential to significantly increase air traffic movements.
At larger airports, particularly where significant capital expenditure may be considered, the airlines may choose to establish an ACC.
The objectives of an ACC are to:. Recommendation: Airline Consultation Adequate and meaningful consultation with the airline community at the appropriate level of strategic engagement should start early in the master plan process.
All matters concerning medium- to long-term airport development programs with associated large scale CAPEX , should be referred to lATA through the proper departments at Airline Members head office.
The operating airlines will make available suitably qualified specialists who will be prepared to consult and advise the local authorities.
In general terms, Airline Operators Committees AOCs cover day-to-day short-term operational issues at the airport for which they are established. Usually, information concerning a proposed airport development is first received from the airport authority at AOC meetings.
On the other hand, ACCs address medium- to long-term strategic development matters. The creation of an ACC at an airport often involves lATA to help in identifying the right airlines and the right people to assist airports with planning.
For major projects, an lATA representative may also participate. These are best conducted in an "open house" format, with interactive information stations staffed by knowledgeable members of the planning team. This method allows the public to interact one-on-one with the planners. It also limits the opportunity for a special interest group to control the meeting.
It is important that the actual planners participate in these sessions to communicate their knowledge, their commitment to real planning, and to gain the trust of the public. At smaller airports, the interactive open house approach may not be feasible, and a more traditional presentation followed by a question-and-answer session may be the only option. Regardless of format, public information sessions typically need to be held more than once and in more than one location to give the broadest public an opportunity to participate.
These public involvement sessions require the planners to be open and positive to public consultation. They can also consume a substantial amount of time and budget. The scope of public awareness campaigns varies from country to country and from airport to airport, generally in line with the scope of the projected development plan. Documentation of consultations is an important part of the master plan. While the individual interviews with users are not necessarily published, the key issues from these interviews are extracted and presented in a form that identifies them as issues raised during the consultations.
Often they will be grouped in categories i. Not all the issues will be addressed in the master plan, and those that will be addressed elsewhere should be identified separately. For example, some users may raise design issues during the master plan consultations. These types of issues will only be considered in a more detailed design and construction phase that may follow the master plan.
The public consultation program should be documented in an appendix to the master plan, identifying times, locations, attendee lists, minutes or other feedback forms, plus copies of all public awareness materials. Typical consultations are characterized by several "hot topics" that tend to bring out more public involvement, and more emotion.
These include:. Development of new runways or new services e. Options are available to reduce noise exposure;. If the airport's traffic data, for example, is different from that provided by governments or air traffic control agencies, the credibility of the master plan can be compromised;.
Airport master planning follows a structured approach that is accepted by airports and regulators around the world. The key steps are illustrated in Exhibit 3. Exhibit 3. Proceed with Development Program. It is important to stress the need for the airlines, through the ACC process, to be allowed the opportunity to review, comment on and provide input to the master plan throughout the planning process.
The particular order of the plan components may vary, and there may be several elements running in parallel during the planning process e. For example, it is recommended that a preliminary financial analysis start at the preplanning stage and be updated throughout the development of the plan. A master plan, even a master plan update, is a major project typically taking a year or more. Therefore, the planning effort needs to be thoughtfully scoped in advance to match the local conditions.
The reasons for the master plan should be identified and prioritized i. The preplanning should identify objectives, including specifically identifying the development issues that the plan will need to address. In simple terms, the objectives should answer the following questions:. Fahim Ahmed , Md Sharikur Rahman. Anurag Awasthi. Ijbmm Journal. Lenice Mirian Silva. Ioulia Poulaki , Eleni Kitrinou. Manish Singh. Rosemary Kiiza. Anthony Minnaar.
Murat Pasa Uysal. Log in with Facebook Log in with Google. Remember me on this computer. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Need an account? Click here to sign up. Download Free PDF. Related Papers. To determine the BHR, the hourly data must be arranged in descending order of magnitude. Starting with the highest volume hour, the forecaster calculates the cumulative sum of the top volumes that amount to five percent of the annual volume.
Departure peaks drive functions such as parking, check-in, and security screening. Arriving peaks drive functional elements such as immigration, baggage claim, and greeter requirements. The total peak may drive overall circulation, concessions, and restroom requirements.
It is important to note that these peaks are typically distinct, occurring at different times of the day as a function of airline scheduling practices. As passenger demand and aircraft movements increase, these ratios are usually slightly declining. An analysis of the recent historic data will confirm the relationship between peak hour demand and annual demand. The FAA established typical ratios between peak hour passengers and annual passenger traffic.
Such ratios can be found in airport planning materials, including FAA publications. These ratios were developed for North American airports in the s and 90s are indicative only. The flight schedules reflect expectations regarding the future growth of ATM segments passenger, cargo, general aviation, and military , the mix of markets, aircraft fleet mix, and the future hourly operational profile of the airport.
The future flight schedule will be used to estimate the volumes of passengers throughout the terminal by combining the information on aircraft arrivals and departures with passenger check-in curves. The methodology used will vary by region, airport, desired level of service, and the availability of data. A consistent theme of all the methodologies is to not plan to the very peak period of a given year, resulting in facilities that are significantly underutilized at other times of year.
Indeed, the forecaster may want to evaluate multiple methodologies and assess the range of results. Sensitivity assessment with some of the inputs or parameters can be made to provide upper and lower limits of demand. The forecaster must also determine the appropriate level of effort for the subject airport. They have the advantage of narrowing peak hour analysis to a particular day or at most across the peak month.
In this case, a larger percentage of passengers will experience peak conditions and it may be necessary to use another criterion instead of the peak hour to size the terminal facilities. This criterion may be based on a minimum level of service to be experienced by at least 95 percent of passengers.
Logically, the planning process moves from the more general level of detail through to the more specific where the different elements that comprise the airport are examined together and separately. The update of the ADRM is structured to reflect this progression. And continues with a comprehensive chapter on planning the Passenger Terminal see Chapter 3.
Passenger terminals are certainly one of the most interesting and complex elements at any airport. This chapter also addresses Levels of Service LoS from both a quantitative and passenger perception point of view. LoS continue to be of interest as airport infrastructure particularly terminal facilities, continue to be stretched by the overall growth in aviation. A master plan is required so that all airside, landside and airport support facilities can develop, expand and improve the operational flexibility and efficiency of their business in a structured, balanced and orderly fashion.
This, without adversely impacting on the business of their neighbors on or adjacent to the airport. In so doing, the potential of the available land and the capacity of the airport's runway system and terminal area will be maximized.
All airports should have a master plan to guide their future infrastructure development in a logical, cost efficient and affordable manner. Without a master plan, there is a risk that short-term decision making will result in projects for capacity enhancement being poorly located or inappropriately sized, resulting in wasteful expenditures or restrictions on the airport's overall capacity or performance. In the absence of qualified internal subject matter experts, the master plan should be prepared by independent consultants with global experience and a proven history of delivering plans that enable incremental modular expansion when demand triggers development.
An airport needs to be looking to the future to ensure that, as traffic increases and its composition fleet mix changes, the facilities will be in place to meet the needs of that traffic.
Failure to plan and to develop sufficient facilities e. A master plan is the planners' vision of how the ultimate development potential of the airport could be realized.
It is a physical representation of an airport's long-term business plan. It will provide an indication of how capacity enhancement may proceed over the short years and medium years terms.
Master plans are developed for new and existing airports. They should be reviewed approximately every five years, or when significant changes in demand occur, so that the airport's future plans reflect the latest market conditions, technological improvements and emerging trends.
Environmental regulations can also influence the content required in a master plan. An effective master plan uses text and drawings to present the material in a way that is understandable by airport decision makers, airport users and others that have an interest in the future of the airport. It should be noted, however, that refurbishment or expansion of existing facilities may be disruptive to day-to-day airline operations and may increase short-term airline operational expenditures.
Regardless of which option is finally pursued, the design of new facilities should be as flexible as is practical. A building's layout and construction techniques should enable variations in the operational usage of the building and facilitate phased expansion in the future. Recognizing these constraints early in the planning process will help planners develop realistic assessments of the future potential of an airport.
A master plan is not an airport design. Nor is it a detailed cevelopment program or a financing plan. It is a long-term guide to development that supports an airport's business development strategy. It includes indicative investment levels and a preliminary assessment of financing. That said, a master plan needs to be robust and possess the ability to accommodate differing periods of growth and resultant rates of expansion.
Therefore, no master plan should be viewed as the final answer. The changing nature of the airline business and the potential for this to impact on an airport's strategic direction dictates that the master plan should be routinely reviewed, at least every five years. Recommendation: Master Plan Assumptions It is recommended that all master plan assumptions be thoroughly reviewed and tested at least every five years through ongoing consultation with the aviation community.
Statistical traffic trends should be reviewed against forecasts on an annual basis to ensure all planning assumptions are still valid.
The airport master plan outlines the vision for airport development to the ultimate development potential of the site. As the airport is an important economic driver, there will be keen interest from those directly and indirectly involved. People in the surrounding communities will want to understand how the airport will develop.
Consultation is a key component of a successful master plan. Ideally, when completed, a master plan will be a consensus on the future direction of the airport. The interested parties in the airport's development are a combination of those with a direct business interest, and a broader group that includes the general public. The term stakeholders is often used to describe this broad group.
Consultations have the most impact if they are commenced early in the planning process, before irreversible decisions are made. With early consultation, the issues of real importance to airport users, political entities and the general public can be identified. Planners can then manage these issues as the plan develops. Early consultation also highlights common business drivers and interests; this ensures alignment of stakeholder business strategies.
Late involvement of users or the public in the master plan process will create the impression that the consultations are not meaningful, because decisions have already been made. This has the potential to delay formal approval if stakeholders cannot support development as envisaged within the master plan.
Consultation, to be meaningful, should be on-going throughout the master plan process. Although there are variations from country to country, the current trend is for more consultation rather than less. In many countries, public consultations are mandatory. Determining who to consult will vary by city, country and region.
Clearly, as the airport's primary function is to support aviation, airlines should be regarded as a primary stakeholder, or even as a "business partner".
A well-structured program is beneficial to all parties. The airlines have an opportunity to assist the airport in keeping capital costs to an appropriate level. However, it should be acknowledged that, due to the dynamic nature of the airline business, the airlines' time period of primary focus is often much shorter than the overall period being addressed by the master plan.
Airlines may be hesitant to share data or future plans, either directly to the airport authority or through external consultants, as these could be commercially sensitive.
Airport authorities will need to ensure that the data disclosed is protected via a non disclosure agreement or other means to protect individual airline interests. Recommendation: Airline Consultation Adequate and meaningful consultation with the airline community at the appropriate level of strategic engagement should start early in the master plan process. The operating airlines will make available suitably qualified specialists who will be prepared to consult and advise the local authorities.
In general terms, Airline Operators Committees AOCs cover day-to-day short-term operational issues at the airport for which they are established. Usually, information concerning a proposed airport development is first received from the airport authority at AOC meetings. On the other hand, ACCs address medium- to long-term strategic development matters.
The creation of an ACC at an airport often involves IATA to help in identifying the right airlines and the right people to assist airports with planning. For major projects, an IATA representative may also participate. This method allows the public to interact one-on-one with the planners. It also limits the opportunity for a special interest group to control the meeting.
It is important that the actual planners participate in these sessions to communicate their knowledge, their commitment to real planning, and to gain the trust of the public. At smaller airports, the interactive open house approach may not be feasible, and a more traditional presentation followed by a question-and-answer session may be the only option.
Regardless of format, public information sessions typically need to be held more than once and in more than one location to give the broadest public an opportunity to participate. These public involvement sessions require the planners to be open and positive to public consultation. They can also consume a substantial amount of time and budget. The scope of public awareness campaigns varies from country to country and from airport to airport, generally in line with the scope of the projected development plan.
While the individual interviews with users are not necessarily published, the key issues from these interviews are extracted and presented in a form that identifies them as issues raised during the consultations.
Often they will be grouped in categories i. Not all the issues will be addressed in the master plan, and those that will be addressed elsewhere should be identified separately.
For example, some users may raise design issues during the master plan consultations. These types of issues will only be considered in a more detailed design and construction phase that may follow the master plan.
The public consultation program should be documented in an appendix to the master plan, identifying times, locations, attendee lists, minutes or other feedback forms, plus copies of all public awareness materials.
Development of new runways or new services e. The key steps are illustrated in Exhibit 3. The particular order of the plan components may vary, and there may be several elements running in parallel during the planning process e. For example, it is recommended that a preliminary financial analysis start at the preplanning stage and be updated throughout the development of the plan.
In the sub chapters that follow, each of the plan elements will be discussed in greater detail. Therefore, the planning effort needs to be thoughtfully scoped in advance to match the local conditions. The reasons for the master plan should be identified and prioritized i.
The airport may already possess recent inventory data on the capacity and condition of the facilities, meaning that the master plan scope can be reduced. Data availability will vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and from airport to airport. Their level of detail and accuracy must be adequate to support the master plan. The required contour intervals for topographic maps should be determined at this time.
New base mapping may be required. In today's lean airports, master planning is typically a consultant responsibility coordinated by a small in-house administrative team. The schedule should show milestones and deliverables. If the master plan is to be undertaken by consultants, then selection criteria should be established. These should be based on the consultants' experience on similar work and their professional credentials.
Input to this process by consultants is important for the evolution and refinement of the detailed scope and budget. If the airport is far away from the city in a remote area, there may be a low level of interest in public consultation. Any required documentation of environmental issues, monitoring of results or planned mitigation actions should be identified.
At the preplanning stage, the airport's financial officer should provide an estimate of the affordable capital for the first five years of the forecast, for the second five years, for the following 10 years and, in board terms, for the period thereafter. If there is a possibility of receiving external grants for part of the capital, an approximate value of the grants should be included in this initial guidance.
The preliminary financial framework should also be subject to consultation with primary stakeholders. For many airports, this requires budgeting to undertake the plan in the next fiscal year. For airports with external funders for the master plan, identifying the source and amounts is followed by application for funding. The need to acquire these services by way of a bidding process may also need to be factored into the overall planning timeframe. These are covered in detail in Section 2 Forecasting.
Forecasts should generate a range of data that can be used by planners to determine floor area, building footprint and plot sizes for all airport facilities. Also required is the daily fleet composition of freight aircraft by all aircraft categories. In reality, accurate forecasts are very difficult to obtain.
No one can predict with absolute certainty world events that might impact traffic growth, e. To enable airport planners to conceive flexible master plans, forecasters will provide potential upper and lower range scenarios as well as their underlying driving forces. Recommendation: Development Triggers Development plans and phasing should be linked to traffic volumes, not specific years. This approach provides flexibility and will not trigger expansion until it is actually needed. It is important to verify the source and relevancy of this existing data to ensure it is accurate and reflects current conditions.
This may include: 3. These drawings and maps will be used to determine areas, geometries and capacities. They will also be used in the condition surveys of the existing facilities. See Chapter 3. This will establish broad guidelines regarding the levels of capital that are likely to be affordable. It can be useful to identify major development milestones on a simple timeline e.
These will provide specific inputs for econometric analysis within the traffic forecast. See Chapter 2. This data is usually readily available at the airport, but should be checked to ensure that the data is complete and accurate. These statistics can often be obtained in electronic format from the ANSP. Among other things, this data is used for noise modelling, for developing nominal schedules for future gate planning, and for airfield demand- capacity simulations.
One area where the data may be incomplete or confusing is transit and transfer passengers. Some airports count same-plane in-transit passengers i. Some airports are missing data on transfers i. It is important for planners to understand the data they collect and what is included or excluded. This data and the related time spent on site will enable planners to have an understanding of the development potential of existing facilities.
Some airports will have this survey undertaken on a regular basis and the information will be available without a dedicated study.
For all building systems, a condition assessment may be required if the airport does not keep ongoing records of the age and condition of terminal systems e. Passenger processing rates e. The condition of the facilities, including estimates of remaining useful life should also be evaluated. This should include capacity determination, age, remaining useful life assessment and any possible future constraints.
These need to be inventoried and included on site plans. This should cover alignment, condition and capacity. Public transportation services should also be assessed for capacity and modal split e. The inventory should use drawings, tables, aerial photos and GIS data to assemble the information in a simple and readable format.
The analysis should determine a level that is appropriate for the size of the airport and the potential for airside demand exceeding capacity in the future. At the completion of the requirements analysis, the shortfall five, 10 and 20 years into the future should be determined. Current and forecast demands on each element of the airport are compared to the current capacity of each element and any excesses of demand over supply are identified, typically in five year increments.
Shortfalls are determined in terms of facility requirements. For example, a shortfall capacity to handle additional enplaning passengers is defined as a facility requirement of 1, square meters of additional space and seating for people. The types and sizes of new facilities are determined through this requirements analysis. By clearly defining the issues and the reasons that a solution is required, the requirements analysis lays the groundwork for the development of options.
In addition, consideration must be given to how the airport and its air traffic will integrate with other traffic flows. The analysis must consider both capability and capacity. Do widths and separation of runways and taxiways meet ICAO recommendations?
How do the runway alignments fit with other nearby airport runway alignments? The target usability is very high, typically Many of the ground-based navigation aids require protected zones for their effective operation see Exhibit 3.
Some of these zones are horizontal, others are sloped. It is useful to delineate any protected areas, as they may preclude development in areas that otherwise may be considered for other uses as options are developed. These protected areas may affect the overall capacity of the airport. At most airports, these are the responsibility of the ANSP, but are primarily situated on the airport.
Consultations with the ANSP should be an ongoing collaborative process as options are developed. For example, the need for an additional runway may trigger the need for a new tower to meet the requirement to see all controlled maneuvering surfaces. For a master plan at low volume airports, it is often sufficient to estimate runway capacity potential using examples of current best practice.
These systems include air and ground radar systems, multi-lateration systems. Exhibit 3. Mixed mode is assumed to add percent to segregated mode capacity. Actual achieved runway capacities vary with aircraft mix.
A large proportion of large aircraft or a wide range of aircraft sizes will reduce total movement capacity. The inability to clear runways to allow following aircraft to land insufficient or poorly positioned RETs , to reposition aircraft prior to take off inadequate holding bays and the need to cross active runways will significantly reduce movement maximums.
As such, a detailed capacity assessment should be made that considers the arrival versus departure demand mix. If the airfield is complex or nearing capacity, a more detailed approach using an airfield simulation modeling tool is recommended. However determined, the capacity of the existing runway system is compared to current and forecast demand.
The magnitude of the shortfall may point to the alternatives that may be feasible. Here, the runway separation is 2, meters, the runway stagger is 1, meters and the total site area is 1. The cross over taxiways are meters opart.
This dimension allows for a further code F taxiway to be inserted between the two shown at some later date. In this example, the area required to support the movement of aircraft represents approximately 53 percent of the total area available. When considering new runways at existing airports, it is important to consider the existing and projected traffic mix. In this way, the proposed runway length can be tailored to suit the predominant traffic type so that planned capacity enhancements suit the largest percentage of forecast movements.
Boeing aircraft data courtesy of Boeing Aircraft Company Inc. Airbus data courtesy of Airbus Industries website. Others via published Airplane Characteristics Manuals. The runway lengths listed do not consider the effects of aerodrome elevation, runway slope, wind or obstacles.
Airport planners should refer to the document types listed below for each specific aircraft. These are provided by the relevant aircraft manufacturers and detail the recommended landing and departing runway length data: 1. Airplane Characteristics for Airport Planning; and 2. Airplane Flight Manual.
For example, the following table outlines the approximate area required given twin parallel taxiways with associated clearance with code F separation for a single runway of varying lengths: Exhibit 3. Taxiways should be arranged so that arriving aircraft do not obstruct and delay departing aircraft. The extent of taxiway layouts is determined by the volume and frequency of traffic to be handled in the peak hour and the expected aircraft taxi routings to support planned runway use.
Should peak hour movements not require a full parallel taxiway, then a partial parallel layout can be used to minimize construction costs. The partial parallel taxiway can be extended to a full parallel as traffic demand warrants.
An aircraft that has landed delays succeeding aircraft until it has cleared the runway. Taxiways at right-angles to the runway are possible, but this geometry restricts the speed of exit and hence increases runway occupancy time.
A rapid exit taxiway RET , with exit angles between 25 and 45 degrees, permits higher exit speeds. This in turn allows succeeding landing aircraft to be more closely spaced, or it might allow a take off to be released between two landings. When carrying out a requirements analysis in a situation where runways are nearing capacity and simulation is being undertaken to determine capacity and delays, the configuration of the taxiways should be incorporated into the model. The modeling may indicate that additional capacity could be added if RETs are considered in the development of options.
Peak traffic volumes at many airports may exceed the capacity of a holding position, resulting in aircraft queuing on the taxiway leading to the runway end. In such circumstances, multiple runway entrance taxiways should be established to allow aircraft sequencing on departure. These can be required at large airports where the number of gates is insufficient to handle demand during peak periods of the day. If this is the case, aircraft are routed by air traffic control to a holding apron and are held there until a gate becomes available.
Holding aprons can also permit a departing flight to vacate a needed gate and to wait near the runway without obstructing either the arriving aircraft or the departure flow, pending further clearance. They can also be used for aircraft with long turnaround times, where staying on the stand would unnecessarily tie up capacity, or for temporary overflow situations caused, for example, by diversions.
This is particularly true of airports where contact stands are limited. Holding aprons are not usually required if capacity exceeds demand even slightly. However, fluctuations in future demand are difficult to predict.
Therefore, a temporary holding facility may be necessary. They also serve as platforms from which all ground service equipment can operate. The areas required for aircraft aprons, both contact and remote, with associated taxiway clearances for varying wingspans, is approximately: Exhibit 3.
This aids in avoiding the potential for collisions between ground support equipment and aircraft maneuvering on and off stand. Revised taxiway minimum separation distances are currently under consideration by ICAO's Aerodrome Panel, with these not due to take effect until late This comparison needs to be made by aircraft category and by market segment e.
Requirements for ground service equipment storage and cargo staging areas if required should also be identified. The percentage of flights to be accommodated on contact stands should be subject to a service level agreement between the airport and the airline community.
An analysis of floor area requirements on a sub system-by-sub system basis, indicating primary areas and passenger flow routes through the building complex, can be provided if specifically requested. This can form the basis of the conceptual design phase for the passenger terminal that may follow the master plan study. Demand calculations result in a forecast of the required forecourt length. This is compared to the existing forecourt to determine the shortfall that needs to be addressed as options are developed.
Determination of the forecourt requirements for dedicated commercial vehicles e. Base carriers may also have supplemental needs in terms of a headquarters building and training facilities.
Airport Authority Administration: At smaller airports, authority offices can be located within the passenger terminal building complex or in an annex. Airport Maintenance: The airport requires buildings for storage and maintenance of airport equipment, workshop space, and for storage of supplies. Current facilities should be compared to airport facility needs in the future. In addition to statistical volumes and recent trends, consultations with cargo operators, freight forwarders and ground handlers on their future plans are an important input to determining future facility requirements.
In many jurisdictions, the airport does not provide cargo buildings or aprons, but simply leases serviced land for their development.
Car Rental: The requirements for rental car service need to be assessed, including ready and return facilities, in-terminal service desks, service areas, etc. At large airports, the requirements may point to consolidated car rental facilities, sometimes located remotely from the main passenger terminal. Deicing: Airports that require deicing facilities need to evaluate forecast peak needs to existing facilities and to identify any requirement for expansion of these facilities in the future.
Deicing facilities require a substantial contained area and should be located within close proximity of runway departure ends. Alternatively, deicing on stand may be considered. Fuel Supply, Storage and Distribution: Fuel farms are usually provided by others, such as an airline consortium, fuel suppliers, supplier joint ventures or independent fuel infrastructure providers.
The reserve required is driven by supply resilience and the method and number of supply sources. Sufficient land should be held in reserve for expansion of these facilities up to and including the ultimate development phase. General Aviation: General aviation includes a wide variety of users including corporate flight operations, recreational flying, flight training and the fixed-based operators that support these activities.
Forecasts of future requirements primarily use a forecast of future based aircraft and transient operations. The current waiting list for hangars and tie-downs can provide an indication of unsatisfied demand.
The airport's own strategic plan will also influence the forecast of requirements. If the airport is primarily focused on air carrier services, then general aviation requirements may take a lower priority as alternatives are developed. Ground Service Equipment Maintenance and Storage: Maintenance of apron support vehicles is performed in workshops. The number and size of the workshops is related to the scale of the airport operation, the number of ground handlers and the number of vehicles being maintained at any one time.
Some equipment may need to be stored on a semi-permanent basis e. In-flight Catering: The size of in-flight catering facilities is related to the number of international, domestic and charter passengers departing on a busy day. These facilities can be located off-site, although this will increase traffic levels through security posts. Operations: Enhancements, if required, to ATC, airfield ground lighting, meteorological facilities and navigational aids need to be discussed with the ANSP.
Multiple locations may be required depending on the scale of operation and the number of ground handlers operating on site. Refueling Stations: An area should be set aside to allow cars to refuel.
The category level is based on the aircraft size and traffic operating at an airport. At large airports, if alternatives for airfield development involve additional runways, satellite rescue and firefighting service facilities may also be required to meet the required response times. Utilities: The forecast requirements for water supply, sewers and sewage treatment, solid waste handling and disposal, natural gas, electrical power, centralized heating and cooling plants and communications need to be determined.
This will involve determining existing capacities and comparing them to forecast requirements. Most of the utility requirements will increase with passenger demand and, at the master plan stage, forecast requirements are usually undertaken using a simple relationship of requirement to passenger numbers.
Where data is available, these relationships can be developed from records of past traffic levels and usage. In developing the master plan, these uses are always secondary to the primary aviation requirements, but if there is sufficient land the forecast needs for these other operations can be considered. Further planning requirements for airport support facilities will be detailed in future releases of ADRM.
The primary focus of the requirements analysis for surface access is on-airport roads and parking as well as primary road and rail access.
The capacity of on-airport roads needs to be compared to forecast peak hour demands, taking into consideration the total traffic that will be using a particular road including passengers, well-wishers, greeters and employees. All modes of transportation need to be considered, including taxis, limousines, shuttle buses, courtesy cars, coaches, buses and delivery vehicles.
Similarly, the capacity of existing parking facilities and access lanes, taxi staging areas, mobile phone lots, and employee parking are compared to forecast demand and shortfalls identified. If consultations indicate the potential development of a multi-modal interchange, then the requirement for access routes and terminal linkages should be identified.
Further planning requirements for airport surface access will be detailed in future releases of ADRM. It sets the stage for the development of alternatives. If the requirements analysis is effective, a reader of the master plan will understand the need for additional facilities or services and how these requirements were established.
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